Since we recently passed a fun milestone with the supposed end to the Iran war – ConDon has claimed it was imminent 50 times – I thought it would be fun to do a quick summary of just how heinously stupid and criminally destructive this whole tragedy has been. I warn you this will be entirely objective, with no justification, rationale or any other kind of backing evidence to support my claims. In other words, just like the administration does it.
During his first term in 2018, Trump saw fit to withdraw the US from the JCPOA, put in place under Obama. This diplomatic triumph put in place in 2015 had very effectively neutered Iran’s nuclear program, reducing its enriched uranuim by 98%, dismantling two-thirds of its centrifuges and allowing continuous access by inspectors. The ostensible reason for this withdrawal was because it made too many concessions and would allow Iran to begin research again in, wait for it, ten to fifteen years. Huh. The real reasons of course are because Obama had done it and Netanyahu keeps Trump’s nuts in a decorative box on his desk. A small box. Instead, we went back to brutal economic sanctions that the regime ignored since the only damage they did was to the people of Iran and allowed the regime to start boosting uranium enrichment and ramping up missile development.
Fast forward to August 2025, where instead of potentially being able to start those activities again two years from now Iran has been doing it for eight years. This, being a justified concern (albeit one that only happened because of the 2018 decision, try to keep up) led to the bombing and “obliteration” of said nuclear program. Feel free to picture Bibi gleefully squeezing his testicular toys but also throw in Petey Hegseth unable to resist a chance to deploy the latest boom-booms. Boy, we showed them. Maybe? It is hard to know since we no longer have the ability to check since leaving the JCPOA. Oh, and this was almost certainly unconstitutional and probably illegal, but hey.
Then in February Netanyahu once again exerts scrotal pressure, this time to distract from his latest horrific and immoral war that had gone south. (It truly baffles me how this fucker keeps his seat at the international table, as he is clearly a war criminal, but I digress.) Donny “no more wars” Boy, emboldened by the success of and lack of push back for his Venezuelan escapade figures “why not?” and off we go. Congress schmongress.
One important note to make right here is that at this moment Iran did not control the Strait of Hormuz. Spoiler alert, but this will become important later.
Yes, a chorus of “but, why?” went up. The justifications offered were matched in their inanity only by their variety. Seriously, pick a day, a spokesperson and a talking point and it was a veritable hodgepodge of deflection, backpedaling and bullshit. The only thing they made a case for was not having asked for permission. And it was exactly as shambolic and disastrous as you would expect. The Middle East descends into chaos, world markets go into a tailspin, lots of people die and Trump and Co. has the nerve, despite every even remotely knowledgeable person predicting all of this, to be surprised. But don’t worry, it will only take a few days because we are so awesome and they are such cravens. Um.
It is time to update Vizzini’s iconic line from “The Princess Bride”. How about this:
“You’ve committed one of the classic blunders! The first is thinking that air wars ever accomplish anything on their own!”
Then again, since we had no objective there is no saying whether it was a success or not. Handy, that. To be fair, it did accomplish one that they threw out. It did force a regime change by virtue of killing the Supreme leader, thus making way for his son, a worse hardliner and extremist than his dad. Oops. But don’t worry, we have the greatest negotiator in the history of the universe to get us out of this mess.
Turns out he is actually busy – you did know that referred to Trump, right? – designing ballrooms, painting pools and planning birthday parties no one wants to perform at. “Send JD, send Lil’ Marco, send Jared, whoever, it’ll all be over any second and if not I’ll just threaten ‘em with actual war crimes on Truth Social. It’s Biden’s fault!”
Now it’s 106 days in and while Trump preps for the UFC to use the People’s House as its dressing room (and I thought it was gross when he used the south portico for a Tesla promotion) we might actually be nearing a deal. The only catch is that quite literally the only country benefiting from said deal is Iran. Okay, the Gulf States “benefit” by not getting bombed anymore but that rings hollow in the same way that getting the Strait open is a victory since it was open before we started the war. If the deal happens – and the size of that “if” cannot be measured with existing technology – let’s break it down.
Before the war: Strait open under international control; Iran doing what it likes with nuclear program; oil stockpile and market stable; Israel in unpopular war.
During the war: thousands die, global markets tank, oil prices skyrocket and crude stockpile dwindles; America spends $110 billion dollars and counting while dangerously reducing weapons capabilities while consumer pricing index goes through roof and inflation reaches highest point in three years; Israel in larger, even more unpopular war.
After the war likelies: Iran gets handed untold billions to REopen Strait while retaining control and its nuclear program continues unmonitored; oil prices stay high because the stockpile can’t be stabilized for years and our economic woes continue; Iran now has more leverage, political and economic, than any time in recent memory; Israel even more desperate and once again reaching for Trump’s nuts.
What a deal! And it only took fifty tries . . . well done, Mr. President.
From the silver lining department, his new heights of incompetence, neglect, tone-deafness, abuse, hypocrisy, stupidity, corruption and malfeasance may finally be putting a dent in his popularity and/or credibility. The MAGA worm may be turning. It just remains to be seen if that will actually mean anything.
Post Script. I spun all of this out, replete with cynicism, sarcasm and flippancy, even while the little voice in my head protested my blithe ignoring of the human toll. It is a war. Trying to make space in my head for the literally indescribable scale of suffering and destruction – WAR – is a Sisyphean at best. It feels both wrong and unavoidable to write anything at all where this is concerned. On some level none of this matters when placed in the context of the immeasurable and irreparable damage done to the ecology, culture and people of the Middle East. Done by choice, and preventable. The choices are to ignore, be sick and despair, or write. The first is unsustainable and deplorable and the second destructive. Selah.